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Medley Global Advisors’ Ben Emons expects the market to break out in 2020.
But his forecast doesn’t apply to the next few months.
Despite this week’s strong market gains, the firm’s managing director of global macro strategy predicts uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit will prevail and continue to rock stocks.
“We’re dealing with a lot of slowdown in data, particularly on the trade front and across the globe,” Emons he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “In 2020, if the trade deal between the U.S. and China gets resolved, and Brexit as well, the uncertainty disappears and the data can strengthen and then we’ll see a big rally.”
Emons’ base case is the U.S. and China will make an official agreement on trade. Even if the deal is unspectacular, he believes it will relieve volatility and spark a historic market surge.
“That’s the big fundamental backdrop for next year to push the market higher,” he said.
Shorter term, Emons doubts a better-than-expected third-quarter earnings season would provide the essential power to sustain new highs. Right now, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are about 1% away from record highs.
“This is a still cautious market,” he added. “Each time trade negotiations seem to be moving towards a conclusion, it then turns around and becomes a negative story.”
Emons, who is far from the recession camp, speculates big money will quickly return to the market once Washington and Beijing finalize a deal.
“Right now, trade across nations is very depressed,” he said. “So, there is a lot of scope for rally there for improvement in trade.”
He sees one struggling group as the biggest winner: U.S. multinationals.
“Those will all have opportunity to rally from here,” Emons said. “There will be a lot of momentum.”