Bond yields are hovering near their July highs, and technical analyst Louise Yamada says the charts are suggesting a rally in rates is signaling the beginning of a new cycle.
“I think the two-year yield has actually been telling us that interest rates are on their way for a reversal from the 36-year declining interest rate cycle, to a new rising interest rate cycle,” the managing director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
According to Yamada, the two-year yield has been in an “uptrend since 2013,” and in 2016 had actually broken a downtrend that was in place since 1981. More recently, the two-year has surged to a yield of 1.5 percent from around 1.3 percent, a move that Yamada believes is “anticipating the Fed’s move in December.”
Additionally the 10-year yield, according to Yamada, is also showing signs of an even bigger rally. The 10-year is currently above its 200-day moving average even while caught in a “six-month consolidation,” but Yamada says if the 10-year can reach 2.5 percent, a move to 3 percent is certainly in the cards.
“Eventually, a breakout through 3 percent would, for us, define the reversal into a new rising interest rate cycle,” she said.
Bonds have sold off in the last month or so as the market increasingly predicts a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market believes there is a more than 80 percent chance that a rate increase will occur then.
