The stock market sell-off is likely far from over, according to Guggenheim Partners’ global chief investment officer.
“Our indicators are pointing to a much more severe downturn before the end of the summer,” Scott Minerd told CNBC’s “Closing Bell ” on Wednesday.
His firm’s model sees the stock market going “somewhere below the lows in December.”
Near term, he sees an immediate move down to around 2,730 on the S&P 500 before it drops further.
The S&P closed 0.7% down at 2,783.02 on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points. Meanwhile, in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury note yield fell to its lowest level since September 2017 before rebounding to about 2.26%.
A portion of the yield curve further inverted as 3-month Treasury bills last yielded 2.36%, well above the 10-year rate. A yield curve inversion is seen by traders as a potential sign that a recession is on the horizon.
“The bond market is sending us a strong signal that there is something wrong,” said Minerd, whose firm manages $265 billion in assets.
However, that same message isn’t being seen in the stock market, he said.
“One of the things that I am concerned about near term, that is over the next week or so, is complacency is so high,” Minerd said.
There has barely been an increase in volatility in the Cboe Volatility Index — Wall Street’s preferred message for measuring fear, he noted. He also said while credit spreads have widened “modestly,” he sees “no sign at all of concern” in the market.
“Either the Treasury market is ahead of itself or the stock market and the credit markets are not pricing correctly the risk,” he added.
In his view, the stock market and credit markets will have to catch up to Treasurys.
He also is still sticking with his belief that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be a rate hike.
“If inflationary pressure continues to mount as a result of tariffs and the economy remains in good shape, I think the Fed could be still in the mode of raising rates this year.”
He said for the moment, though, the central bank will likely be on hold for most of the year.
— CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
