Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta former president Dennis Lockhart discusses what’s next for the FOMC and if the U.S. is close to recession on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
The final revision of first-quarter gross domestic product due out Wednesday is expected to confirm a larger contraction of the U.S. economy than earlier readings, and the fresh GDP data may support the view that a recession is either in progress or coming, say economists, as inflation rages and stocks head for the worst first half of a year since 1970.
The initial report released by Commerce Department in April showed that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, shrank by 1.4% on an annualized basis in the three-month period from January through March in a surprise drop after economists polled by Refinitiv expected 1.1% GDP growth for the quarter.
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, June 16, 2022. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images / Getty Images)
A revision last month indicated the economic contraction likely deepened to 1.5%, and Goldman Sachs’ latest GDP estimates expect that number to hold firm.
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The contraction last quarter was the first drop in GDP since the second quarter of 2020 when the U.S. was deep in the throes of the COVID-19 recession. The 2022 drop also followed a robust 6.9% expansion in the final three months of 2021.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, June 16, 2022. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Economists expect some slowdown in the economy as the Federal Reserve continues to bump up interest rates to cool inflation and will be looking for indications of whether a full-fledged recession – defined by two consecutive quarters of contractions – is brewing.
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If Wednesday’s final revision from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirms an economic contraction for last quarter, as expected, all eyes will then turn to the agency’s release of its advance estimate for second quarter GDP on July 28.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Photo by AL DRAGO/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
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The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNow tracker indicated earlier this month that the economy could be headed for a second-quarter drop in GDP, after showing the economic growth stalled in the spring to a flat 0% – a steep decline from its previous estimate of 1.3% on June 1 and 0.9% on June 8.
FOX Business’ Megan Henney and Lucas Manfredi contributed to this report.
