A view of the moon, captured from a camera on the International Space Station on May 3, 2021.
NASA
CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter offers a view into the business of space exploration and privatization, delivered straight to your inbox. CNBC’s Michael Sheetz reports and curates the latest news, investor updates and exclusive interviews on the most important companies reaching new heights. Sign up to receive future editions.
Overview: Four for 2024
Over the past few years, the space industry has gone through a phase of hyper growth followed by belt-tightening. There are exceptions, depending on which company or subsector you’re talking about, but that’s been the overall trend, with the last two years really defined by companies trying to keep moving and survive the culling.
Last year saw some “green shoots” for the space sector – such as the milestones and gains by the likes of SpaceX, Amazon, Rocket Lab, Redwire and Virgin Galactic. But for many others, 2023 was the most challenging year for space businesses in recent memory (just ask satellite insurers).
2024 is underway, already with a flurry of news both good and bad. This year, the space business items I’m looking to see center around turning aspirations into achievements – here are my top four:
4. The D2D opportunity shapes up
Already we’ve seen updates from Iridium and SpaceX on their respective direct-to-device satellite programs, and I expect to see more from others soon. AST SpaceMobile is supposed to launch its first five commercial satellites this quarter, Lynk Global is taking the SPAC route to raise money and deploy more satellites, and we’ll hopefully hear more on how work on Globalstar’s new satellites for Apple is progressing. But the size of the D2D market remains an open question. Or, as one industry expert told me in 2022, “I don’t think we know how this is going to be paid for.” I think 2024 is the year we find out.
3. Blue Origin gets rolling
Is this the year Jeff Bezos’ sleeping giant awakens? We’re off to a strong start thanks to the flight debut of Blue Origin’s BE-4 engines on the successful first launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket. Dave Limp’s a month in as CEO of Blue Origin and is proudly showing off some New Glenn hardware. I’m looking for that trend to accelerate in 2024. I’d take increased production of BE-4 engines, progress toward a New Glenn launch, regular flying for New Shepard, or the results of some space station demonstrations, to name a few.
2. Starship deploys satellites
The third time should be the charm for Starship, if only to show that the monster rocket can begin flying payloads. Starship’s third flight is tentatively slated for February. While a potential refueling demonstration or surviving reentry would be welcome bonuses, I want to see Starship carrying satellites to orbit this year.
1. An American lander on the moon
One down, but more are coming. Astrobotic was the first this year to have a go at landing on the moon and, despite the mission going awry in the early stages, it shouldn’t be the last attempt in 2024. Next month should see Intuitive Machines’ IM-1 mission launch, and Firefly’s first Blue Ghost flight is targeted for the third quarter. I used to wonder if the general public would get excited about low-cost lunar cargo missions but the outpouring of interest and support for Astrobotic’s ill-fated mission shows that a successful moon landing by an American company could be the industry’s biggest story of the year.
What are your predictions for space events in 2024? Let me know!
What’s up
- ULA’s Vulcan debuts successfully: The company’s new heavy-lift rocket launched for the first time, with United Launch Alliance pushing to get Vulcan flying regularly this year. – CNBC
- SpaceX sends texts via Starlink in first demo with T-Mobile of the company’s D2D satellite capability, saying the texting demonstration validated the technology by allowing messages to be both sent and received from unmodified cell phones. – CNBC
- Astrobotic’s inaugural mission fell short of attempting a moon landing after the spacecraft malfunctioned, which the company suspects was a failure within the spacecraft’s propulsion system that began to quickly drain the vehicle of fuel. – CNBC
- NASA delays Artemis 2 to 2025 and Artemis 3 to 2026 as the agency wrangles with development and production obstacles in its crewed lunar program. – CNBC
- NASA’s JPL lays off 100 contractors citing expected budget cuts to the Mars Sample Return (MSR) program. JPL warned that more layoffs may come, depending on the outcome of the federal budget process. – SpaceNews
- NASA gives United Arab Emirates’ MBRSC role in Artemis program, with the UAE space agency to provide the airlock module of the forthcoming lunar Gateway station, in exchange for an astronaut seat on a future moon mission. – NASA
Industry maneuvers
- Rocket Lab awarded $515 million SDA contract, to build 18 satellites for the T2TL-Beta layer of the PWSA. – Rocket Lab / Space Development Agency
- NASA awards Blue Origin and Voyager with $42 million and $57.5 million, respectively, in additional funding under the commercial low Earth orbit destinations (CLD) contracts after the departure of Northrop Grumman from the program. Northrop previously announced it was joining Voyager’s Starlab project. – NASA
- Spire wins $9.4 million NOAA contract for satellite weather data, an award that covers 8 months of work. – Spire
- Italian spacecraft operator D-Orbit raises $110 million in a round led by Japanese firm Marubeni and joined by investors including Avantgarde, CDP, Seraphim Space, United Ventures, Indaco Venture Partners, Neva SGR and Primo Ventures. – D-Orbit
- ABL looking to raise up to $100 million, per a securities filing, with the rocket venture looking to add to the previous $420 million it’s raised. – TechCrunch
Market movers
Boldly going
- Phillip Chambers named CEO of U.K. rocket startup Orbex, the company’s fourth chief executive in the past year. – Orbex
- Jim Bridenstine joins board of Starlab Space joint venture, the combined space station effort of Voyager and Airbus. The former NASA chief is the only member of Starlab Space’s board of directors disclosed so far. – Starlab
- Jeff Trauberman joins DC consultancy Velos as Vice President for Strategy, Analysis, and Government Engagement (SAGE). Trauberman previously served as VP of government affairs for Virgin Orbit National Systems. – Velos
- Melissa Patton and Meghan Allen join nonprofit Space Foundation as vice president of education and senior vice president for Washington operations, respectively. Patton joins from education venture Victory Holdings, while Allen was most recently Sierra Space’s VP of government relations. – Space Foundation
On the horizon
- Jan. 12: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.
- Jan. 13: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.
- Jan. 15: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.
- Jan. 17: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Ax-3 crew mission from Florida.
- Jan. 18: Rocket Lab Electron launches Spire satellites from New Zealand.
