Stocks rallied Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its much anticipated 0.75 percentage point rate increase to fight inflation, but hinted that it could slow the pace of its hiking campaign at some point.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 350 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 3.5%. Tech shares led gains after better-than-feared results from Alphabet and Microsoft.
Stocks hit their highs of the session as Powell left the door open about the size of the rate move at its next meeting in September and noted the central bank would eventually slow the magnitude of rate hikes. Powell said in a press conference that the Fed could hike by 0.75 percentage point again in September, but that it would be dependent on the data.
“As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation,” he said.
The Fed’s second consecutive big hike was widely expected. The Fed statement was much the same although the central bank did give a nod to the slowing economy by adding a line saying, “Recent indicators of spending and production have softened.”
“The Fed’s move brings the benchmark fed funds rate back to 2019 levels, the peak of the last cycle,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “With inflation still running at four-decade highs, the Fed doesn’t have the luxury of calling it quits here, though the pace will likely slow if a long-awaited moderation in inflation materializes.”
While some investors hope to see a dovish pivot from the Fed later in the year, others continue to worry that the central bank’s ongoing efforts to lower inflation will push the economy into a recession – which many regard as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP readings. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, uses multiple other factors to determine one. Second quarter GDP data is due out Thursday. First quarter GDP declined by 1.6%.
“With so many moving parts to consider, we expect markets to remain volatile after the FOMC meeting,” wrote Mark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management. “With the markets anticipating a 3.3% fed funds rate by year-end, this means that after this week’s meeting, there may be around 100bps of rate hikes by end-December. But the pace of hikes remains uncertain.”
Stocks started the day on a high note after getting a boost from tech earnings. Alphabet shares rose 5% after the tech giant’s quarterly report showed strong revenue from Google’s search business. Microsoft gained about 5% after reporting a 40% jump in revenue growth for Azure and cloud services. That said, both companied posted earnings and revenue that fell below analyst estimates.
“Earnings growth estimates continue to slip, even for the technology sector, which typically holds up relatively well during economic slowdowns,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told CNBC. “Pressure from a pullback in consumer spending likely contributed to EPS/sales shortfalls, as all measures of consumer confidence have deteriorated sharply from peaks around mid-2021.”
Meta Platforms shares rose 5%, ahead of its earnings scheduled for after the bell. Amazon advanced more than 3% after getting hit by the retail carnage Tuesday. Apple added more than 1.5%.
Enphase Energy also popped on the back of its latest results, trading about 15% higher. Chipotle also added 13% following its mixed second-quarter earnings release.
There are more major earnings reports to come. On Wednesday, Qualcomm, Ford and Meta Platforms will report at the end of the day.
More than 150 S&P 500 companies have reported calendar second-quarter earnings thus far. Of those names, roughly 70% have beaten analyst expectations, FactSet data shows.
