An under-the-radar defensive stock is quietly surging as safety plays make a comeback

As trade war chaos envelops asset classes from stocks to commodities to currencies, defensive corners of the market like consumer staples and utilities have fallen back into favor. Within consumer staples, one name that may fly under the radar for some investors has acted particularly well, catching my eye in recent sessions.

While the staples-tracking XLP ETF has seen a notable gain just in the last month and a half, food and commodities processing company Archer Daniels Midland, one of the XLP’s components, has been climbing upward all year.

Archer Daniels Midland year to date

In fact, the stock has jumped more than 15 percent year to date, and on Wednesday fell modestly to snap its longest daily losing streak of the year.

In March, shares of Archer Daniels Midland saw an upside breakout of a technical symmetrical triangle pattern, and now stand 23 percent above their November 2017 lows. That’s in contrast to the S&P 500’s rally of 8.8 percent in the same time period.

Now, the stock is bumping up against yet another key resistance level, going back to its 2016 highs. If it can breach those levels to the upside in any meaningful way (it’s already broken slightly above that level), that’s going to mark a significant “higher high.”

That would be very bullish for this defensive stock.

It’s important to remember, however, that the stock is quite overbought on a near-term basis, as reflected in its relative strength index. Therefore, those 2016 highs may prove to be some kind of short-term resistance that could compel the stock to take a near-term “breather.” In other words, shares of Archer Daniels Midland may have to see a pullback to work off their overbought condition.

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