South Carolina Republican primary voters roundly rejected Nikki Haley’s arguments on age and electability, lifting Donald Trump to an easy victory in his major remaining opponent’s home state, preliminary exit poll results show.
Benefiting from the state’s preponderance of conservatives and evangelicals, Trump prevailed in Saturday’s race on a range of key measures. Voters picked immigration and the economy as their top issues of concern; in the preliminary results, Trump crushed Haley by more than 40 points in trust to handle border security, 71-27%, and by 69-30% in trust to handle the economy.
While Haley argued that she was more electable than Trump in the general election, 83% said Trump was actually likely to win in November vs. 57% who said the same of Haley. Indeed, 62% saw Trump as “very” likely to defeat President Joe Biden vs. just 25% who said the same about Haley.
Haley’s campaign pitch questioning Trump’s age — and her call for mental competency tests for candidates older than 75 — also seems to have fallen short. More South Carolina GOP voters said Trump has the physical and mental health needed to serve effectively as president, 71%, than said so for Haley, 59%.
In all, 70% said they would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee vs. 42% satisfied with Haley. So broad was Trump’s support that 63% also said they’d see him as fit to be president even if he were convicted of a crime. (He faces 91 charges and denies all wrongdoing.)
Still, 34% would not see Trump as fit for office in the case of a conviction — including 82% of Haley’s voters — leaving open the question of what they’d do in November if that were to occur.
Much of Trump’s advantage in South Carolina was structural: Sixty-one percent of Republican voters identified themselves as evangelical white Christians (compares with 19% in New Hampshire’s primary last month). While that was off its peak, 67% in 2016, Trump won 75% of their votes.
Further, 79% identified as conservative, including 43% as very conservative — the latter, a group Trump won with 86% support in preliminary exit poll results.
There was solace for Haley in some groups. She ran closely with Trump among non-evangelicals, independents and college graduates; won moderates; and she prevailed by a wide margin among the relatively few who were focused on foreign policy. She also won nearly half of those who were dissatisfied with the country’s direction, rather than angry about it.
In one underwhelming result for Trump, just about half of voters, 44%, identified themselves as “part of the MAGA movement” that he started. It was similar in the Iowa caucuses and lower in New Hampshire.
Voters cast their ballot at Kilbourne Park Baptist Church during the Republican presidential primary in Columbia, South Carolina, Feb. 24, 2024.
Sam Wolfe/Reuters
Still, the conservative bent of South Carolina Republican primary voters was reflected in other attitudes. Sixty-eight percent said most unauthorized immigrants in the United States should be deported. Sixty-five percent falsely said President Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. Fifty-three percent said they would favor a federal law banning all or most abortions nationwide.
And, with Biden in the White House, 87% were dissatisfied or angry at the way things are going in the country, including 46% angry. Among those angry voters, 85% backed Trump.
Further demonstrating his appeal, 93% of Trump voters said they mainly voted for their candidate, rather than against his opponent.
Among Haley voters, by contrast, 58% mainly supported her; 40% voted mainly to oppose Trump.
In a list of four issues, 39% said immigration was most important in their vote, 33% selected the economy, 11% foreign policy and 10% abortion. On the economy, just 23% said they’re getting ahead financially. And 48% rated the national economy as “poor,” another very strong Trump group; he pulled in 87% of their votes.
Among four candidate attributes, 36% said they were mainly looking for a candidate who “fights for people like me,” a made-for-Trump category in which he won 91%. A third were looking for shared values, with 67% in this group for Trump. The rest divided between the candidate with the right temperament and the one best able to defeat Biden.
A final result showed the extent to which vote preferences long were locked in place: Seventy-seven percent said they chose their candidate before January. Among them, nearly three-quarters voted for Trump. Among those who decided this month, by contrast, 64% backed Haley. But they made up just 16% of the turnout.
