The spread between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures prices has widened to new extremes recently, and this is a bullish development.
The spread has reached more than $11, the largest since mid-2015. WTI is trading a little over $65 per barrel, while European Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, is trading near $76.
This is more than double the size since the beginning of May, and this deep discount will become extremely attractive as producers work through the pipeline constraints.
Both contracts peaked on May 22 before selling off sharply due in part to OPEC production decisions and technical selling. While Brent has recovered back into the middle of this range, WTI remains relatively muted — rising domestic shale production and the inability to move this crude through the pipeline and to the Gulf of Mexico are two key catalysts.
These pipeline constraints have stockpiled crude oil throughout Texas and Oklahoma, and federal data this week estimated another production record. I have been bullish on crude oil all year, and rising production has not deterred this belief because of strong demand.
On a technical basis, when looking at this spread, support has historically come in at $11.50 to $12. I like buying WTI and selling Brent at this juncture, and I expect this spread to find its way back to $7 before the end of June.
