Second quarter growth is tracking at 4.1 percent, after some economists tweaked their forecast after Thursday’s economic reports.
The CNBC/Moody’s Analytics GDP survey rapid update said tracking estimates slipped to a median forecast of 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, reflecting the latest durable goods and advanced trade data released Thursday. Tracking data reflects the GDP forecast, after it incorporates the latest relevant economic reports for the quarter.
Economists’ own forecasts for growth, however, were unchanged in the survey at 4 percent. Thomson Reuters data also showed the consensus forecast of economists it surveyed steady at 4.1 percent. The widely anticipated report is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
JP Morgan economists had one of the most dramatic changes in their actual forecast, cutting second quarter growth expectations to 3.9 percent from 4.4 percent.
The economists said the decline in the durable good inventories of 0.1 percent in June was the softest monthly change since 2016, and inventory data looked weak throughout the second quarter. However, they expect the decline in second quarter inventories to provide a boost to growth in the third quarter.
According to JP Morgan economists, trade data for June also disappointed with the trade deficit in goods widening from $64.8 billion n May to $68.3 billion in June, with exports down 1.5 percent and imports up 0.6 percent. However, they still expect exports to make a sizable contribution to second quarter growth, at 1.5 points.
According to CNBC/Moody’s Analytics survey, economists see second quarter growth tracking in a range of 3.8 percent to 5.2 percent. The quarter could be the best in four years.
