What to watch for
Do Democrats turn out?
It wouldn’t be enough for O’Rourke to turn out all the Democrats who usually vote in midterm elections. He’ll need to mobilize voters who generally don’t turn out in large numbers in off-year elections. This includes minority communities, young people, unaffiliated voters and moderate Republicans.
Early voting totals are an indication that this election year will be different than previous midterms, which have historically low turnout. Early voting in Texas has already surpassed the total vote in the entire 2014 midterms.
Are Latinos mobilized?
Democrats see Latinos as the key to taking red states on the Southern border, such as Texas and Arizona. O’Rourke speaks Spanish fluently, and often does interviews with Spanish-language channels, such as Univision. He has also made immigration a focal point of his campaign.
Two Democratic Latina candidates are likely to become the first Latinas to represent the state in Congress. But these factors do not guarantee that Latino voters turn out, or that they will vote for Democrats. Cruz could appeal to more socially conservative and evangelical Latinos.
Is there a measurable Trump effect?
President Trump visited Texas in October to stump for Cruz at a rally with tens of thousands of attendees. The president has been rallying non-stop in the final weeks before the election, in an attempt to convince his base voters that the election is a referendum on his presidency, even if he isn’t on the ballot.
