Several rounds of strong and severe storms will play havoc with Mother’s Day in the Plains, Midwest and mid-Atlantic with effects lasting into the work week.
A stalled weather pattern, which is also bringing notable heat across much of the South, will put several regions at risk for strong to severe storms, but a widespread damaging weather event is not expected at this time.
There is a line of strong storms riding a stationary front Sunday morning from northern Indiana to Maryland. The storms should pass off to the east with only isolated strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain possible through the day.
A line of severe storms will likely fire up Sunday evening along the border between Oklahoma and Texas. There is a slight risk for severe weather in the area, including the risk for damaging winds, large hail and brief tornadoes. The threat should occur Sunday evening with activity winding down in the early morning hours of Monday.
Further north, another round of strong storms will likely develop in eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. A slight risk for severe weather exists, including in Chicago. This round of storms likely will come in the early morning hours of Monday with strong winds, large hail and brief tornadoes possible.
Then on Monday evening, another round of strong storms will pass over parts of the mid-Atlantic with strong wind gusts and heavy rain likely. The storms will likely impact Washington, D.C; Roanoke, Virginia; and Richmond, Virginia.
In the Great Plains, another round of storms will develop along the Texas and Oklahoma border on Monday evening. A round of storms is likely late Monday into early Tuesday from northern Oklahoma to western Illinois including Wichita, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri; and Peoria, Illinois. A slight risk for severe weather exists with damaging winds, large hail and brief tornadoes the likely threat.
The stalled, rainy weather pattern is due to a strong high pressure that has developed in the Tennessee Valley. Warm, and even hot, temperatures are expected across much of the South over the next few days, with records possible Sunday through Tuesday.
On Sunday, widespread temperatures near or above 90 are likely from Texas to North Carolina. It is important to note the temperature difference between some locations. While Dodge City, Kansas, will reach the upper 90s today, Denver could be stuck in the 60s. New York City will have a damp, 50-degree day, while temperatures will be in the low 90s in Charlotte, North Carolina. These temperature vary nearly 20 to 30 degrees over just a couple hundred miles.
Some of this warmth will finally make it back into the Northeast by Tuesday with a summer-like day for Washington, D.C. and New York City.
A slow-moving disturbance is currently developing in the Gulf of Mexico with a track toward the coast by midweek. This system is poorly organized and lacks a true tropical structure.
However, the disturbance should bring rounds of tropical showers to Florida over the coming days. Widespread rainfall totals of 4 inches or higher are likely across much of the state. Isolated flooding could become a concern, but Florida is capable of handling a good deal of rain, and areas of South Florida are currently dealing with moderate to severe drought conditions.
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