Indonesia seen posting biggest trade surplus in a year in June: Reuters poll

Stacks of containers are seen at Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta
FILE PHOTO: Stacks of containers are seen at Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, May 6, 2019. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

July 12, 2019

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia is seen recording its biggest trade surplus in a year in June, though exports and imports may have continued to decline, reflecting a global trend of weaker external trade, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The median forecast from 11 economists in the poll was for a $690 million trade surplus last month, compared with a $218.5 million revised surplus in May.

The surplus in May was a surprise, as markets had expected a $1.4 billion deficit. The previous month, Indonesia recorded its biggest monthly trade shortfall in history with a gap of $2.4 billion.

This has prompted some economists to predict the central bank would bring forward an interest rate cut to lift economic growth, especially after the Federal Reserve is expected to trim rates in the United States.

Bank Indonesia is due to meet for a monetary policy review on July 17-18.

In the poll, analysts expected June exports to have dropped 8.7% on year, against an 8.5% contraction in May.

On the other hand, June imports were also seen falling by 5.0% annually, compared with the 17.3% drop a month earlier.

(Polling by Tabita Diela and Nilufar Rizki; Writing by Gayatri Suroyo; editing by Gopakumar Warrier)

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