China’s economic growth likely slowed a tick last year as authorities cracked down on both debt-heavy and pollution-causing industries.
The Chinese economy is forecast to have grown 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period a year ago, and slightly lower than the 6.8 percent in the third quarter, according to a poll of economists by Reuters.
The world’s second-largest economy will post fourth-quarter and 2017 growth figures at 3 p.m. HK/SIN on Thursday, which is later than its usual morning announcements.
Beijing’s official full-year GDP target for 2017 was “around 6.5 percent,” but there may be upside surprises as the country posted robust economic data last year in part due to a global recovery.
Just last week, Premier Li Keqiang said China’s GDP was expected to have grown 6.9 percent last year, busting the official target and quickening for the first time in seven years.
Economists polled by Reuters predicted China’s economic growth would slow to 6.5 percent in 2018 from an expected 6.8 percent in 2017.
The Chinese economy is going through a phase of “creative destruction” as lively new economy sectors like e-commerce and online financial services coexist with still-dominant old economy sectors, said Chi Lo, BNP Paribas Investment Partners economist for Greater China.
However, growth in the old economy still outpaces in the new economy, so “when you mix the two together, there is an inherent drag on growth,” Chi told CNBC.
“The power of creation is not yet strong enough to overwhelm the power of destruction in the economy, but the transition is structurally positive,” he added.
China, for its part, will keep its target for economic growth at “around 6.5 percent” in 2018, unchanged from last year, Reuters reported earlier in January, citing unnamed policy sources.
The world’s second-largest economy has been fighting debt for years as it tries to balance economic stability against the potential fallout from any sharp deceleration.
Resilient external demand and robust domestic household consumption will bolster China’s economy in 2018, said Sian Fenner, economist at Oxford Economics.
“The government is making moves to make sure that, for one thing, (the country is) rebalancing away from investment (with) monetary tightening and policies for ensuring that financial risks are also reduced, which should also mean that investment actually does continue to slow this year,” Fenner told CNBC.
She said she expected Chinese real estate investment to slow this year, although low inventories will prevent the sector from a sharp slowdown.
Risks to the Chinese economy in 2018 include trade protectionism as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration looks like to readdress the yawning trade gap between the two countries, Fenner added.
