Democrats are already hailing Doug Jones’ victory as a moral triumph, not just for Alabama but for the entire country.
His election is a political shot in the arm for Democrats who believed this ruby-red seat was unattainable, a referendum on Roy Moore — who faced multiple accusations of sexual misconduct towards the end of the race — and on President Donald Trump’s outright endorsement of Moore.
But while his election has powerful political repercussions, Jones becoming the 49th Senate Democrat will likely have only a modest impact on Republicans’ ability to accomplish their legislative goals, although his joining the Senate ranks will be a strong catalyst for Republicans to finish their major agenda items before he is sworn in.
The biggest difference that Jones can make, in terms of Senate votes, is on bills and nominations requiring only a simple majority of 51 votes, like budget-related measures and judicial nominees.
On taxes, Jones’ victory could vex Republicans’ whip count if he is in fact sworn in before Congress sends their bill to President Trump’s desk. Jones is expected to be sworn in by December 27th at the earliest, but party leaders insist they will have the bill done by Christmas.
But if they fail to advance the bill before Jones is seated, Republicans would only be able to lose one of their remaining 51 votes in the Senate and still pass the bill on a party-line vote, with Vice President Mike Pence acting as a tie-breaker.
House and Senate Republicans are working in what’s known as a conference committee to merge their respective versions of the tax bill into a conference report together, and Senate leaders have said they’ll have a final version ready for votes by the end of this week.
But Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., already voted against Senate’s initial version of the bill. So in the event he is still a “no” vote and Jones is sworn in before the conference report gets voted out of Congress, Senate leaders will no longer have any margin at all for losing additional Republicans.
Beyond the tax bill, most of the Senate’s major legislative pushes will require a supermajority, so Republicans will need to get nine Democratic “yes” votes in order to advance most bills instead of eight. Jones has political views in keeping with those of the mainstream of his party.
While Senate Democrats will no doubt relish the additional vote they have with Jones – not to mention the political and moral messages his victory sends – their bigger challenge will come in 2018, when 23 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats are up for re-election and Republicans are defending only 10 seats.
“The ’18 election will decide who will control the Senate and I think it’s going to be us. I hope so,” Sen. Richard Shelby, Jones’ future fellow Alabama senator, told reporters hours before the vote.
