Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review shows greater willingness to use nukes first, say critics

FAN Editor

A Trump administration Nuclear Posture Review released Friday shows a greater willingness to use nuclear weapons first and calls for development of new nuclear weapons and capabilities to counter rivals such as Russia and China.

The NPR document released by the Pentagon also said the U.S. will develop for deployment a “low-yield” nuclear warhead for submarine-launched ballistic missiles “that is able to penetrate adversary defenses.” It also said the U.S. will “strengthen the integration of nuclear and non-nuclear military planning.”

“This is a pretty sharp departure from current policy or even pre-Obama policies,” said Lisbeth Gronlund, senior scientist and co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “President Trump is embarking on a reckless path — one that will reduce U.S. security both now and in the longer term.”

Gronlund added that her biggest concern with the new policy is “an emphasis on integrating nuclear and conventional forces to facilitate nuclear warfighting. This new policy deliberately blurs the line between nuclear and conventional forces and eliminates a clear firewall.”

The Defense Department’s document concludes that the nation’s nuclear triad — land, sea and air-based capabilities — remains “the most cost-effective and strategically sound means of ensuring nuclear deterrence.” The nuclear triad has been a centerpiece of the nation’s strategic defense since the 1960s but the U.S. defense officials have complained it relies in part on an aging stockpile of weapons and delivery systems at a time when Russia and China are modernizing their own nuclear forces.

According to the document, the U.S. nuclear forces have suffered as a result of “consistent underfunding” and it argues that the nation must make “significant and sustained investments” over the coming decade to deter rival superpowers.

“U.S. nuclear weapon modernization will cost about 6.4 percent of the current Department of Defense budget at its peak,” said Michaela Dodge, a policy analyst specializing in nuclear weapons policy at Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, a conservative Washington-based think tank. “The value that the United States is getting out of its nuclear deterrent way surpasses it.”

Among the investments planned is the so-called “low-yield” nuclear warhead that could be launched underwater. This warhead with less explosive force is in response to Russia, which developed underwater drones that are capable of carrying low-yield warheads.

“The only purpose of this adding another delivery type is to enable … a more surgical, low-yield strike,” said Gronlund, a physicist by training. “We’re sort of primed to engage in this kind of nuclear warfighting. This brings us closer to the edge. We still need some kind of spark though.”

Also, Gronlund said that the new nuclear warhead isn’t needed because the U.S. already has bombs and air-launched cruise missiles with a low-yield capability. She also said the Trump policy is counter to the “very long glide path” of the U.S. reducing its emphasis on nuclear weapons use.

But the NPR argues that the “low-yield” warhead for the U.S. Trident missile would be “a comparatively low-cost and near-term modification to an existing capability that will help counter any mistaken perception of an exploitable ‘gap’ in U.S. regional deterrence capabilities.”

The document also calls for the U.S. to develop “a modern nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile. It said the “low-yield” option on the Trident missile and the sea-launched cruise missile would “provide additional diversity in platforms, range, and survivability, and a valuable hedge against future nuclear ‘break-out’ scenarios.”

“Unfortunately, this NPR does not argue for maintaining ‘strategic stability’ nor does it explain whether, how and why the call for new U.S. nuclear capabilities will reduce the threat of nuclear conflict,” said Thomas Countryman, former acting undersecretary of State for arms control and the chairman of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan disarmament group based in Washington.

But others maintain that the new nuclear weapons strategy makes sense and argue that there’s a need to strengthen nuclear deterrence capabilities, including through smaller “low-yield” bombs.

“It realistically assesses international conditions and addresses impacts of these developments for nuclear forces, including strengthening deterrence by reintroducing low-yield nuclear weapon options to the U.S. nuclear weapon arsenal,” said Dodge, the Heritage analyst.

Dodge also said the document ” highlights negative security trends since the end of the Cold War, particularly the mistaken belief that Russia’s trajectory of development will be benign.”

At the same time, the document cites nuclear threats faced as China aggressively expands its missile technology and nuclear capabilities. It also mentions threats posed by North Korea and Iran.

“China, too, is modernizing and expanding its already considerable nuclear forces,” according to the document. “Like Russia, China is pursuing entirely new nuclear capabilities tailored to achieve particular national security objectives while also modernizing its conventional military, challenging traditional U.S. military superiority in the Western Pacific.”

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