Apple is set to report after the bell, the latest tech company that could see a big post-earnings move.
While most do not expect a Facebook-style drop, the options market is still hedging its bets, says one derivatives expert.
“What about all those surprises that we have seen in tech? Could Apple be setting up for one?” Stacey Gilbert, head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “The majority of flow is not setting up for a pullback here in Apple but we have seen an increase in buyers of really protective crash puts just in case Apple falls into the camp but I would say nobody is anticipating it from an options perspective.”
Apple shares have pulled back alongside the rest of tech as high-profile industry leaders such as Netflix and Facebook had big swings lower following their earnings reports. Its shares have dropped nearly 2 percent since Facebook’s 19 percent drop last Thursday.
The options market is not pricing in much more risk than normal this quarter, adds Gilbert. Its implied move is around 4 percent, in-line with Apple’s swings on a close-to-close basis over its previous four quarters.
However, Gilbert notes that upside does appear to have a limit.
“The majority of the flows are suggestive of seeing some upside, although the upside does seem to be capped. We’re seeing a number of investors sell the $200 and $205 strike calls, suggesting that they’re not anticipating notable upsides, no huge surprises to the upside here,” she said.
Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, is upbeat heading into the report.
“I think their earnings report will be pleasant,” said Baruch on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “You’re going to look and see a focus more on reoccurring revenue as well as iCloud, App Store purchases, and that September guidance.”
iPhone sales have been the most closely watched metric in recent Apple quarters, but its high-growth software and services segment is attracting greater investor attention. The segment has averaged 17 percent sales growth over the past four fiscal years.
Baruch says he is a buyer of Apple around $188 to $190. Apple was trading at $191.54 by mid-afternoon Tuesday.
