FILE PHOTO: Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard attends the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) at Le Bourget, near Paris, France, December 5, 2015. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo
October 1, 2018
By Allison Lampert
MONTREAL (Reuters) – Voters in the Canadian province of Quebec will cast ballots on Monday in a close election primed to be a showdown between the long-dominant Liberals and a center-right party as immigration plays out as a key issue.
The question of how many outsiders should be let into the majority French-speaking province – the second most populous in Canada – has eclipsed arguments over separatism that dominated Quebec in recent decades.
Recent polls show Quebec’s ruling Liberals, a centrist party, are running neck-and-neck against the center-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) of former business executive Francois Legault, which has never held power.
A CAQ win would follow a shift to the right in Ontario, where Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government swept to power in June, ending 15 years of Liberal rule in Canada’s most populous province, which includes Toronto.
That would also pose a challenge to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s hopes of winning re-election in October 2019, as the federal Liberals are betting on gains in Quebec to offset expected losses elsewhere then.
Last year Legault criticized the Trudeau government for not doing enough to prevent migrants crossing illegally into Quebec and Ontario from the United States.
While the two business-friendly front runners have garnered around 30 percent of the vote each in recent polls, the CAQ is expected to win more seats because it has greater support among francophone voters who are key to winning elections.
Legault has campaigned on a controversial plan to take in 10,000 fewer immigrants a year and expel new residents who fail to pass tests on French and Quebec values within three years.
He came under fire during the campaign after federal officials, who have the final say over who is allowed into Canada, dismissed the plan as unworkable.
The Quebec Liberals, led by premier Philippe Couillard, have been in power for 13 of the last 15 years and the CAQ is running on a platform of change.
“The question is: Have we had enough of the Liberals? Is it time for new blood?” Leger Marketing pollster Christian Bourque said by phone.
At the same time, the Parti Quebecois, which advocates for Quebec separating from Canada, risks its worst showing as it fends off a challenge from left-leaning Quebec Solidaire, pollsters say.
Near-record low unemployment and real growth in gross domestic product in 2017 that broke 3 percent for the first time since 2000 should help Couillard, said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Kavcic and Laurentian Bank economist Dominique Lapointe said Monday night’s results are unlikely to change Quebec’s current investor-friendly strategy of balancing budgets and paying down debt.
(Reporting by Allison Lampert in Montreal; additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto; editing by Leslie Adler)
