Money is creeping back into value plays, but that doesn’t mean growth’s run is over

FAN Editor

Call it a near-perfect rotation.

A number of different, even opposite parts of the market — value and growth, consumer staples and technology, health care and communications services — are hitting new highs in tandem, a rare occurrence that often speaks to the strength of a given market move.

With all of these sectors touching records yet again on Monday along with the broader market, some are likely wondering if this broad-based strength can last.

Dan Draper, managing director and global head of ETFs at Invesco, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday that the action is a sign of healthy “breadth in the market.”

“Think about a year ago when we were really struggling, worried about geopolitical events [and] the market was selling off,” Draper said. “Now, a year later, we’ve seen the reversal in monetary policy taking effect.”

With the Federal Reserve taking an accommodative stance on interest rate policy, recently indicating that it would pause after three successive cuts, the macroeconomic layout is starting to improve the value proposition for some largely undervalued sectors, Draper said.

“We went down below 1.5% [on the] 10-year Treasury. Now [we’re] back up to 1.8, approaching 2%,” he said. “That’s a better environment. So, you’re getting now some macro factors and … fundamentals in energy, financials, some of these crucial sectors where value can rebound.”

Value is, indeed, getting another look from investors who have enjoyed growth’s decade of gains, said Tom Lydon, editor and proprietor of ETFTrends.com.

“When you look at value compared to growth, growth has just kicked some major butt out there in the last 10 years,” he said in the same “ETF Edge” interview. “Value? All of a sudden we’re starting to see some money flowing in, and also in certain factors [like] fundamental factors, quality factors. Value-oriented stocks are starting to get, in this late cycle, a little bit more attention.”

That could be tied to the fact that just five stocks — the FANG names and Berkshire Hathaway — make up 18% of the S&P 500, Lydon said.

“Going forward, especially as we’re late cycle, do investors who own the S&P 500 feel like they’re going to invest with confidence in that way?” Lydon wondered.

Draper wasn’t sure they would, but suggested that a different group of buyers may come in to pick up the slack.

“We just had [the] tax year end for mutual funds end of October, we have some reverse window dressing ironically coming into the winners of this year — more defensive, more low-volatility and some growth names,” he said. “But then … new money’s looking at value.”

The new money could be enough to drive “unloved names and sectors,” including the interest-rate-sensitive financial stocks, higher going into next year, Draper said.

“This mixed bag we have, it’s a bit of a rotation into what was winning beginning of the year, but also new money looking to go to somewhere more favorable,” he said.

Todd Rosenbluth, senior director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, wasn’t convinced value’s win streak would last.

“We at CFRA are positive on the growth side of the ledger, so cyclicals like technology like you’d find with XLK or RYT, [which] is the equalweight version of that, or the communications services,” he said in the same “ETF Edge” interview. “Those are sectors we think are going to do better. We’re heading into the period, starting now and in the next six months, where cyclical sectors tend to do very well, and we think that’s set up very well for 2020.”

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