Mexico’s inflation seen at highest level in four years in October – Reuters poll

FAN Editor
FILE PHOTO: People walk past a building undergoing construction in Mexico City
FILE PHOTO: People walk past a building undergoing construction in Mexico City, Mexico January 30, 2020. REUTERS/Andres Martinez Casares/File Photo

November 5, 2021

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s annual inflation rate likely reached the highest level in almost four years in October while core inflation has reached its highest point since 2009, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Inflation concerns are fuelling expectations that the Mexican central bank, known as Banxico, will increase its key interest rate for the fourth consecutive time next week.

The median forecast of 10 analysts, polled by Reuters, predicted a year-on-year inflation rate of 6.14%, compared with 6% in September.

If their estimate is confirmed, it would be the highest inflation rate recorded since 6.77% in December 2017.

Year-on-year core inflation is estimated to increase to 5.16%, the highest level recorded since May 2009.

Banxico, targets inflation of 3%, with a tolerance threshold of one percentage point above and below that level.

A divided Banxico it increased the country’s key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in September.

According to the minutes, the majority of the bank’s board pointed out that expectations for headline and core inflation for this and next year again increased, while medium and long-term inflation expectations have remained more stable.

Mexico’s next monetary policy decision, the second-to-last for this year, is scheduled for Thursday.

In September, consumer prices likely have increased by 0.75%, the poll found, while the index for core price inflation, which strips out some especially volatile energy and food prices, increased 0.47%.

Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI will publish its official inflation figures on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Miguel Angel Gutiérrez in Mexico City; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burín in Buenos Aires; Editing by Alistair Bell)

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