FILE PHOTO: Hesse State Prime Minister Volker Bouffier and German Chancellor Angela Merkel attend the final campaign rally prior to the upcoming state election, in Fulda, Germany, October 25, 2018. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski
October 28, 2018
By Paul Carrel
BERLIN (Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition faces its second test in as many weeks on Sunday as voters go to the polls in the western state of Hesse for a regional election that could torpedo the national government.
The Hesse election has taken on extra significance after another regional vote on Oct. 14 resulted in the worst result since 1950 for Merkel’s Bavarian allies and humiliation for the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), her other ruling partner.
Should Merkel’s conservative ally in Hesse, Volker Bouffier, lose his post as state premier, the chancellor’s enemies will be emboldened ahead of her Christian Democrats’ (CDU) party congress in early December and may try to hasten her demise.
The other risk for Merkel is that her SPD coalition partners come third in Hesse, which is home to financial hub Frankfurt. Such an outcome would increase pressure from the SPD’s rank-and-file for the party to pull out of the coalition with Merkel in Berlin.
“Will Hesse blow up the GroKo today?” newspaper Bild am Sonntag asked, using the popular abbreviation for Merkel’s ruling ‘grand coalition’.
A survey by pollster Emnid for the newspaper showed support nationally for Merkel’s conservative alliance down 1 percentage point on the week at 24 percent, with the SPD on 15 percent – sharp falls from the 32.9 percent and 20.5 percent they won respectively at last year’s national election.
Voters said they were tired of infighting in the grand coalition.
A growing swell of SPD members feel their party is tarnished by its alliance with Merkel and would be best to rebuild in opposition – a scenario SPD leader Andreas Nahles has resisted.
“It is not advisable for the SPD to act hastily or recklessly,” Nahles said ahead of the vote.
Voting in Hesse began at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) and polls are open until 6 p.m. (1700 GMT), when exit polls will give a first indication of the result.
GREENS GAIN
Merkel’s preferred successor as leader of her conservatives, CDU Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has warned the SPD that pulling out of the ruling coalition after the Hesse vote would trigger a federal election.
SPD would suffer heavily in a national vote, with the Greens and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) set to gain. The Emnid poll put support for the Greens at 20 percent and the AfD on 16 percent nationally, both up 1 point on the week.
In Hesse, support for the CDU is running at 28 percent, a survey by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for broadcaster ZDF showed on Thursday. But the CDU and ecologist Greens may lack sufficient support to renew their ruling alliance in the state.
The SPD and Greens were tied on 20 percent, the state poll showed, with the AfD on 12 points, and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) and far-left Linke both on 8 points.
The Greens could figure in a number of potential coalitions in Hesse should they and the CDU lack sufficient support to remain in power.
The CDU and Greens could team up with the FDP; the Greens, SPD and FDP could, in theory, join forces – though the FDP is not keen; or the Greens and SPD could work with the far-left Linke.
The Greens’ half-Yemeni leader in Hesse, Tarek Al-Wazir, is not committing to any coalition until after the vote.
(Reporting by Paul Carrel; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Elaine Hardcastle)
