Yields marched higher on Friday, with the yield on the 2-year Treasury notching a new 15-year high as markets assessed the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and what it means for the economy going forward.
The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury hovered above 4.2%, hitting a 15-year high of 4.266% earlier in the session. It last traded up 12 basis points to 4.246%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year last traded 9 basis points higher at 3.801% and near levels not seen since 2011.
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Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
The climb in yields came as markets weighed the implications of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decisions and what it means for economic growth going forward as the central bank fights to curb rising inflation.
The Fed on Wednesday delivered another large 75 basis point interest rate hike and indicated it intends to stay aggressive, bumping up interest rates to 4.6% in 2023 and 4.4% by the end of 2022. Global central banks took a note from the Fed’s playbook, implementing their own substantial hikes in the wake of the decision.
“While we are likely much closer to the end of the increase in global rates then we are the beginning, it’s still going to take a peak in global inflation and a drop in global economic activity for yields to stop this rise and begin to decline,” wrote Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report in a note to clients Friday.
On the economic data front, September flash PMI data is set to be released on Friday, giving markets preliminary insight into the economic state of the manufacturing and services industries. The data is used as a key indicator for inflation and recession concerns as it reflects whether industries are growing or shrinking, as well as supply and demand.
Analysts are expecting the services sector to inch higher after contracting sharply in August. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing industry is set to drop, after slowing down close to 2020 levels last month.
